The main points:
State regulatory policy increasingly stringent national regulatory policies start to improve production quality and lower prices in terms of both the pharmaceutical companies to increase costs and reduce profits in the short term to the enterprise a great deal of pressure to survive, prompting the industry to accelerate integration. Expected cash-strapped small and medium sized pharmaceutical companies will close down, large companies will accelerate the pace of mergers and acquisitions, industry concentration will increase.
Three big mountains leading to antibiotic market into decline 1) to be issued soon, "clinical use of antibiotics management approach" will be divided into unrestricted use of antimicrobial agents, and restrict the use of special uses three levels to limit the right to prescribe antibiotics, and limit hospital The number of antibiotics; 2) The continuous introduction of antibiotic limit policy inhibits the price of terminal antibiotics; 3) The rising cost of raw materials and production and transformation costs, coupled with the current situation of overcapacity, is expected to be in the antibiotic market for a long time. Lane will be in a recession.
Costs push vitamin products into the rising channel. Recently, raw materials such as oil and corn have remained at high levels. Coupled with the implementation of the new version of GMP, the cost of many manufacturers has risen, and the recent international demand for downstream has increased steadily, resulting in the recent price of many vitamin products. greatly improved. Due to the combined effect of cost and demand, the price of vitamin products is expected to remain high for a long time. Our optimistic varieties are VA, VE and VB.
Investment Advice:
In the next 12 months, the pharmaceutical raw materials industry will be downgraded to a “neutral†rating. In the short term, the internal differentiation of the API sector is intensifying, vitamin products are on the rise, while antibiotics are relatively low. Under the premise that the entire industry is in overcapacity and the gross profit margin is gradually decreasing, we have lowered the rating of the API industry in 2011 to “neutralâ€. The main reasons are: 1) Since January this year, the valuation of the API sector has been higher than the market valuation of more than 100%, at a relatively high level; 2) the overall antibiotic market is sluggish; 3) the production costs of enterprises are rising, and the gross profit margin is falling; 4) The possibility of exceeding the expected performance in this year's interim results is small.
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Henan Qiancuntang medicial technology co.ltd. , https://www.qctchineseherb.com